Tony Abbott: How to save Brexit (and why Tony Abbott doesn't understand the WTO)
So I've just been reading the "Tony Abbott: How to save Brexit" article in the Spectator.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/10/tony-abbott-how-to-save-brexit/
I'm quite concerned, there seems to be a huge number of false facts and assumptions here that could potentially sway public opinion on Brexit. Democracy is based on information, and therefore this is potentially very undemocratic.
I'll take them one at a time... the text from the original article is in italics.
When David Cameron tried to renegotiate Britain’s EU membership, he was sent packing because Brussels judged (rightly) that he’d never actually back leaving.
Well no he asked for fundamental changes to the EU that couldn't be implemented, and if they didn't want to change because he'd never back leaving then surely they back them now as we are leaving. It's not that case and why it's not happening.
The EU’s palpable desire to punish Britain for leaving vindicates the Brexit project.
Well not really the EU's stance has always been the same
Freed from EU rules, Britain would automatically revert to world trade, using rules agreed by the World Trade Organization.
Well not true, our WTO membership quotas are tied in with the EU, and need to be untangled, which countries like Russia are already interferring with.
It works pretty well for Australia. So why on earth would it not work just as well for the world’s fifth-largest economy?
Australia does not trade on WTO alone, it has Free Trade Deals in place. We would be probably one of two countries operating under WTO rules alone.
A world trade Brexit lets Britain set its own rules.
Not if it wants frictionless trade, and you still have international rules to operate under, WTO being one of them obviously.
It can say, right now, that it will not impose any tariff or quota on European produce and would recognise all EU product standards.
Not under WTO rules it can't becase most-favoured-nation (MFN): treating other people equally Under the WTO agreements, countries cannot normally discriminate between their trading partners. Grant someone a special favour (such as a lower customs duty rate for one of their products) and you have to do the same for all other WTO members.
That means no border controls for goods coming from Europe to Britain. You don’t need to negotiate this: just do it. If Europe knows what’s in its own best interests, it would fully reciprocate in order to maintain entirely free trade and full mutual recognition of standards right across Europe.
Well that's the point of the single market having the same rules, that you don't have to check goods because you know they're made to the same standards.
Fourth, no ‘divorce bill’ whatsoever should be paid to Brussels. The UK government would assume the EU’s property and liabilities in Britain, and the EU would assume Britain’s share of these in Europe. If Britain was getting its fair share, these would balance out; and if Britain wasn’t getting its fair share, it’s the EU that should be paying Britain.
The EU has so far only asked us to agree the methodology on how to calculate the divorce bill. It leaves us owing, for example the EU will have to pay pensions for British MEP's like Nigel Farage into the future, why should the Polish or the French pay for our MEPs when we're no longer in the EU.
Finally, there’s no need on Britain’s part for a hard border with Ireland.
Well other than the fact that the common travel area would then allow EU citizens in Ireland to come into the UK without passport checks, what happened to taking back control of borders? Again requires us to fully recognise the EU rules, what about foreign goods that flow into the "EU" part of Ireland and then can flow without checks into the "UK" in Northern Ireland. It all works now because we operate under the same rules.
It might hit out with tariffs and impose burdens on Britain as it does on the US — but WTO rules put a cap on any retaliatory action. The worst it can get? We’re talking levies of an average 4 or 5 per cent.
Completely wrong tarrifs on dairy products are 35%
Which would be more than offset by a post-Brexit devaluation of the pound (which would have the added bonus of making British goods more competitive everywhere).
And everything from elsewhere more expensive, if we leave without a deal people will find everything else more expensive from the devaluation of the pound and additional tariffs but you will not find your pay increase to match this.
UK officialdom assumes that a deal is vital, which is why so little thought has been put into how Britain might just walk away.
Well yes because business knows the impact such as the potential job losses in the auto industry where any border checks will cause delays on production, tariffs on cars may make Nissan, BMW, and Honda think twice about the tens of thousands of jobs they have here as a hub for EU manufacture
Instead, officials have concocted lurid scenarios featuring runs on the pound, gridlock at ports, grounded aircraft, hoarding of medicines and flights of investment. It’s been the pre-referendum Project Fear campaign on steroids. And let’s not forget how employment, investment and economic growth ticked up after the referendum.
It's project reality - when David Davies said the EU medicines agency and EU banking authority
"The Financial Times has reported that the Brexit secretary doesn’t accept that the European drugs regulator and its 900 staff need to depart from London when the UK exits the European Union"
It doesn't matter what you say, the reality is you're not going to get to keep EU agencies in a non-member state, the same goes for the other "fears"
As a former prime minister of Australia and a lifelong friend of your country, I would say this: Britain has nothing to lose except the shackles that the EU imposes on it. After the courage shown by its citizens in the referendum, it would be a tragedy if political leaders go wobbly now. Britain’s future has always been global, rather than just with Europe. Like so many of Britain’s admirers, I want to see this great country seize this chance and make the most of it.
Tony Abbott needs to speak to the WTO and get his facts straight.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/10/tony-abbott-how-to-save-brexit/
I'm quite concerned, there seems to be a huge number of false facts and assumptions here that could potentially sway public opinion on Brexit. Democracy is based on information, and therefore this is potentially very undemocratic.
I'll take them one at a time... the text from the original article is in italics.
When David Cameron tried to renegotiate Britain’s EU membership, he was sent packing because Brussels judged (rightly) that he’d never actually back leaving.
Well no he asked for fundamental changes to the EU that couldn't be implemented, and if they didn't want to change because he'd never back leaving then surely they back them now as we are leaving. It's not that case and why it's not happening.
The EU’s palpable desire to punish Britain for leaving vindicates the Brexit project.
Well not really the EU's stance has always been the same
- Protect Ireland
- Protect the Single Market
- Make UK pay its debts
Freed from EU rules, Britain would automatically revert to world trade, using rules agreed by the World Trade Organization.
Well not true, our WTO membership quotas are tied in with the EU, and need to be untangled, which countries like Russia are already interferring with.
It works pretty well for Australia. So why on earth would it not work just as well for the world’s fifth-largest economy?
Australia does not trade on WTO alone, it has Free Trade Deals in place. We would be probably one of two countries operating under WTO rules alone.
A world trade Brexit lets Britain set its own rules.
Not if it wants frictionless trade, and you still have international rules to operate under, WTO being one of them obviously.
It can say, right now, that it will not impose any tariff or quota on European produce and would recognise all EU product standards.
Not under WTO rules it can't becase most-favoured-nation (MFN): treating other people equally Under the WTO agreements, countries cannot normally discriminate between their trading partners. Grant someone a special favour (such as a lower customs duty rate for one of their products) and you have to do the same for all other WTO members.
That means no border controls for goods coming from Europe to Britain. You don’t need to negotiate this: just do it. If Europe knows what’s in its own best interests, it would fully reciprocate in order to maintain entirely free trade and full mutual recognition of standards right across Europe.
Well that's the point of the single market having the same rules, that you don't have to check goods because you know they're made to the same standards.
Fourth, no ‘divorce bill’ whatsoever should be paid to Brussels. The UK government would assume the EU’s property and liabilities in Britain, and the EU would assume Britain’s share of these in Europe. If Britain was getting its fair share, these would balance out; and if Britain wasn’t getting its fair share, it’s the EU that should be paying Britain.
The EU has so far only asked us to agree the methodology on how to calculate the divorce bill. It leaves us owing, for example the EU will have to pay pensions for British MEP's like Nigel Farage into the future, why should the Polish or the French pay for our MEPs when we're no longer in the EU.
Finally, there’s no need on Britain’s part for a hard border with Ireland.
Well other than the fact that the common travel area would then allow EU citizens in Ireland to come into the UK without passport checks, what happened to taking back control of borders? Again requires us to fully recognise the EU rules, what about foreign goods that flow into the "EU" part of Ireland and then can flow without checks into the "UK" in Northern Ireland. It all works now because we operate under the same rules.
It might hit out with tariffs and impose burdens on Britain as it does on the US — but WTO rules put a cap on any retaliatory action. The worst it can get? We’re talking levies of an average 4 or 5 per cent.
Completely wrong tarrifs on dairy products are 35%
Which would be more than offset by a post-Brexit devaluation of the pound (which would have the added bonus of making British goods more competitive everywhere).
And everything from elsewhere more expensive, if we leave without a deal people will find everything else more expensive from the devaluation of the pound and additional tariffs but you will not find your pay increase to match this.
UK officialdom assumes that a deal is vital, which is why so little thought has been put into how Britain might just walk away.
Well yes because business knows the impact such as the potential job losses in the auto industry where any border checks will cause delays on production, tariffs on cars may make Nissan, BMW, and Honda think twice about the tens of thousands of jobs they have here as a hub for EU manufacture
Instead, officials have concocted lurid scenarios featuring runs on the pound, gridlock at ports, grounded aircraft, hoarding of medicines and flights of investment. It’s been the pre-referendum Project Fear campaign on steroids. And let’s not forget how employment, investment and economic growth ticked up after the referendum.
It's project reality - when David Davies said the EU medicines agency and EU banking authority
"The Financial Times has reported that the Brexit secretary doesn’t accept that the European drugs regulator and its 900 staff need to depart from London when the UK exits the European Union"
It doesn't matter what you say, the reality is you're not going to get to keep EU agencies in a non-member state, the same goes for the other "fears"
As a former prime minister of Australia and a lifelong friend of your country, I would say this: Britain has nothing to lose except the shackles that the EU imposes on it. After the courage shown by its citizens in the referendum, it would be a tragedy if political leaders go wobbly now. Britain’s future has always been global, rather than just with Europe. Like so many of Britain’s admirers, I want to see this great country seize this chance and make the most of it.
Tony Abbott needs to speak to the WTO and get his facts straight.
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